Publication:
職棒球員生涯表現分析

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dc.contributor.advisor張振崗
dc.contributor.advisorChang, Chen-Kang
dc.creator曾韋翔
dc.creatorTseng, Wei-Hsiang
dc.date2008
dc.date.accessioned2017-02-22T15:59:35Z
dc.date.accessioned2025-07-30T15:23:54Z
dc.date.available2017-02-22T15:59:35Z
dc.date.issued2017-02-22T15:59:35Z
dc.description學位類別：碩士
dc.description校院名稱：國立台灣體育大學
dc.description系所名稱：運動管理學系碩士班
dc.description學號：19505003
dc.description畢業學年度：96年
dc.description論文頁數：102頁
dc.description.abstract　　職業球團與球員簽訂合約的年數與年薪，以及球員交易，都需要預測球員未來的表現。目前職業球團普遍使用的方法，就是根據該球員前幾年的表現，因此需要明確的評估方法，可以用來預測球員未來的表現。本研究之目的為根據四項修正後的數據: 三壘安打率、打擊率、保送率、純長打率，探討美國職棒與中華職棒打者生涯表現的趨勢。研究對象為美國職棒1987-2006年共20個球季間，至少出賽8年以上，且每年都出賽達到regular player 標準的打者，共有223名球員，以及中華職棒方面1990-2007年間，生涯打席數超過1000以上的打者，共有147名球員。為了將不同年代的球員表現都放在同一個基準點上比較，美國職棒部份，根據Schell (2005) 所使用的各個數據修正方式，將各球員各年的數據轉換成以1977-1992年國家聯盟為基準，中華職棒則以每一項成績與當時的聯盟平均水準做比較，得到相對於聯盟平均水準的成績。之後再將轉換後的數據對年齡繪製趨勢圖，分析球員生涯變化趨勢。結果發現，在美國職棒以速度見長的選手，在27歲左右達到生涯的巔峰，之後便逐漸下降；打擊率方面，高打擊率的選手，通常附帶著一定的選球能力和長打率，而生涯表現也相對的穩定；選球方面，隨著年齡增長，呈現日漸上升的趨勢，因此可知，隨著經驗累積，有助於提升選手被保送的能力；長打雖會隨年齡增長而衰退，但是幅度並不大，因此，生涯純長打率在聯盟前25%的球員，即便已超過30歲，都還有一定的長打威力。中華職棒也呈現出類似的現象，只是球員生涯的巔峰出現較早，可能是受到兩國職棒制度的差異所造成。透過本研究，可提供球團在簽訂球員合約，以及進行球員交易時的參考。
dc.description.abstract　　The prediction of performance for professional baseball players is required in determining the length and price of contracts and trades. The Method which teams generally use at present, is according to this player's performance in previous years. Therefore, a more reliable method is required to estimate the future performance of the players. The purpose of this research is to analyze the trend of career performance in Major League Baseball and Chinese Professional Baseball League using 4 adjusted statistics: triple rate, batting average, base on balls, and isolated power. The subjects included Major League Baseball players who have played regularly at least 8 years during 1987-2006, totaling 223 players. The players who have had 1000 or more career at bats during 1990-2007 in Chinese Professional Baseball League were also involved, totaling 147 players. In order to compare the players from different era, statistics from Major League Baseball was converted to the standard of National League during 1977-1992, according to Schell (2005). The statistics in Chinese Professional Baseball League was compared to the league average of the year. The converted data was used to analyze the performance change throughout the career. The results showed that, in Major League Baseball, the players with good speed reached their peak in about 27 years old, then showed steady decline. The players with high batting average usually combined with good baseball on ball ratio and slugging average. The performance of these players was relatively stable throughout the career. The ability to get base on balls increased with age, indicating that the experience can help. Slugging average showed small magnitude of decline with age. The players with career isolated power in top 25% of the league still maintained considerable slugging power after 30 years of age. The results were similar in Chinese Professional Baseball League, but the peak performance in the career was reached in the earlier age then that in Major League Baseball. The results of this study can be used as the reference for signing contracts and trading players. 　　For is it given to same datum point is it compare to pay to display player of various years, and probe into different ability separately, this research is adopted by Schell (2005) All data used revise the way, calculate player's data through 5 steps, drawing the trend picture to the age after changing, find out player's career development trend, for using to assess player's ability. 　　Found finally, an excellent player good at the speed of MLB about 27 years old to reach the peak of the career, later dropped gradually. The player of the high batting average, usually lead attaching certain on base ability and power, and career performance relative stability too. The base on balls ability increase with the age, the trend of rising day by day appears. Although player's power will decline with the age, the range is not big, so, player's career pure power rate at the top 25% in the league , even if already over 30 years old, have certain hold their power. The CPBL have similar phenomenon too. The only different is the peak of player's career performance is earlier than MLB. It may due to the difference of professional baseball system in different countries.
dc.description.tableofcontents目　次 第一章　緒論…………………………………………………………1 　第一節　研究背景與動機…………………………………………1 　第二節　研究目的…………………………………………………2 　第三節　研究對象與範圍…………………………………………2 　第四節　本研究所使用之棒球統計數據名詞解釋………………3 第二章　文獻回顧與探討……………………………………………11 　第一節　評估球員表現的方法之相關研究………………………11 　第二節　球員的成熟與退化………………………………………18 　第三節　球場因素（Park Factor）………………………………24 　第四節　其他相關研究……………………………………………27 第三章　研究方法……………………………………………………32 　第一節　研究樣本…………………………………………………32 　第二節　修正球員成績的方式……………………………………32 第四章　結果與討論…………………………………………………38 　第一節　美國職棒方面……………………………………………38 　第二節　中華職棒方面……………………………………………42 　第三節　兩國職棒球員生涯表現之差異…………………………46 第五章　結論與建議…………………………………………………49 　第一節　美國職棒方面……………………………………………49 　第二節　中華職棒方面……………………………………………50 參考文獻………………………………………………………………52
dc.format.extent698112 bytes
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.identifier.urihttps://ir.ntus.edu.tw/handle/987654321/70792
dc.languagezh-TW
dc.publisher運動管理學系碩士班
dc.relation.isbasedon中文部分 陳俊璋(2006)。中華職棒外籍球員來台前後成績之分析（碩士論文，國立台灣體育學院，2006）。全國博碩士論文網，094NTCP5421001。 陳冠良、張振崗（2007，12月），台灣及美國職棒個人成績年度相關性研究（摘要），全國體育運動學術團體聯合年會暨學術研討會口頭發表，臺北市。 曾韋翔、張振崗（2007，12月），美國職棒和中華職棒球隊得失分與投打數據之相關研究（摘要），全國體育運動學術團體聯合年會暨學術研討會口頭發表，臺北市。 臺灣棒球維基館（2007），擷取日期2007年12月1日，http://twbsball.dils.tku.edu.tw/wiki/index.php/Category:%E7%B5%B1%E8%A8%88%E7%94%A8%E8%AA%9E 外文部分 Albert, J., Bennett, J. (2003).Curve ball. New York Copernicus. Click, J. (2004). Statistical Consistency, Baseball Prospectus Basics, Retrieved October 18, 2007, from http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2579 Chimkin, F.M. (2004). Another Look at Runs Created. The Baseball Research Journal,32, 117-122. Hanraham, T. (2004). Highest Future Value. The Baseball Research Journal, 32, 74-76. Jazayerli, R. (2004). Baseball Prospectus Basics: A Brief History of Pitcher Usage. Baseball Prospectus. Retrieved November 10, 2007, from http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2627 Keri, J. (EDT), Click, J., Davenport, C., Demause, N., Woolner, K., Perry, D.,et al. (2007).Baseball Between the Numbers. New York Basic Books, a member of the Perseus Books Group. Maxcy, J.G., Fort, R.D., & Krautmann, A. C. (2002). The Effectiveness of Incentive Mechanisms in Major League Baseball, Journal of Sports Economics, 3, 246-255. Nation, B. (2003). Rockies’ #634: Park Factors and OBP. Baseball Prospectus. Retrieved December 18, 2007, from http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2005 Perry, D. (2004). Integrating Statistics and Scouting, Baseball Prospectus Basics, Retrieved November 9, 2007, from http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2652 Perry, D. (2004). Measuring Offense, Baseball Prospectus Basics, Retrieved October 10, 2007, from http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2562 Perry, D. (2005). Can of Corn: Putting the Park Back in Park Factors. Baseball Prospectus. Retrieved December 5, 2007, from http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4250 Pikul, J., & Mayo, H. (1999). Performance and Eligibility for Arbitration or Free Agency and Salaries of Professional Major League Baseball Players, the 1994-1995 Experience, Journal of Sport and Social Issues, 23, 353-361. Schell, M. J. (2005). Baseball’s All-Time Best Sluggers. Princeton, N.J. Princeton University Press. Scully, G. W. (1974). Pay and Performance in Major League Baseball. The American Economic Review, 64, 915-930. Schulz, R., Musa, D., Staszewski, J., & Siegler, R. (1994). The relationship between age and major league baseball performance: Implications for development. Psychology and Aging, 9, 274-286. Schwarz, A. (2005). The Numbers Game. New York T. Dunne Books. Schulz, R., & Curnow, C. (1994). Peak performance and age among superathletes: track and field, swimming, baseball, tennis, and golf. Psychology and Aging, 9, 274-286. Silver, N. (2004).The science of Forecasting, Baseball Prospectus Basics, Retrieved November 12, 2007, from http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2659 Woolner, K. (2000). Do They Peak Later, Catcher Career Paths, Retrieved September 18, 2007, from http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=569 Woolner, K. (2003). A Big Change for OBP, Aim For The Head, Retrieved Octomber 23, 2007, from http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1759
dc.subject美國職棒;中華職棒;生涯表現;三壘安打率;打擊率;保送率
dc.subjectMLB;CPBL;career performance;triple rate;batting average;base on balls;isolated power
dc.title職棒球員生涯表現分析
dc.titleANALYSIS OF CAREER PERFORMANCE OF PROFESSIONAL BASEBALL PLAYERS
dc.typethesis
dspace.entity.typePublication

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學位論文(103學年度之前)