林華韋;張振崗Lin, Hua-Wei;Chang, Chen-Kang2017-02-272025-07-302017-02-272017-02-27https://ir.ntus.edu.tw/handle/987654321/71328學位類別：碩士校院名稱：國立臺灣體育運動大學系所名稱：競技運動學系碩士班學號：19904009畢業學年度：102年論文頁數：87頁　　犧牲觸擊在棒球場上是一個最常見的戰術之一，教練常常在壘上有人的情況下利用此戰術使跑者前進到下一個壘包以增加得分機率，是亞洲棒球賽中常用的戰術，但過去不多文獻深入探討此戰術在亞洲國家職棒對於得分機率的影響。本研究擬探討中華職棒例行賽中，於無人出局一壘有人的情況下使用犧牲觸擊戰術，對該局後續未得分、得一分、得一分以上機率的影響，評估犧牲觸擊戰術的得分效率。本研究透過2012年及2013年中華職棒在各出局與佔壘狀況下之打擊資料，分析在無人出局一壘有人，及犧牲觸擊成功後的一人出局二壘有人情況下，該局後續得0分、得1分、得1分以上機率。研究結果顯示，在2012年的數據資料中，無人出局一壘有人的情況下，該局後續得0分的機率是0.682，得1分的機率是0.197，而得1分以上的機率是0.108；在一人出局二壘有人的情況下，該局後續得0分的機率是0.610，得1分的機率是0.312，得1分以上的機率是0.068。而分析2013年數據資料後，無人出局一壘有人的情況下，該局後續得0分的機率是0.661，得1分的機率是0.225，得1分以上的機率是0.087；一人出局二壘有人的情況，該局後續得0分的機率是0,620，得1分的機率是0.343，得1分以上的機率則是0.029。這兩年的資料都顯示，犧牲觸擊成功後，會增加該局後續得1分的機率，並降低得0分的機率，但也降低了得1分以上的機率。因此可推論出在跑者越接近本壘的情況會擁有著較高的得分機率(0.372)，但擁有較少的出局數則有較高得1分以上的機率(0.087)。經由本篇研究結果，在比賽前半段需要大量得分的時候，不建議使用犧牲觸擊戰術，但在比賽後半段，一分的改變對於比賽結果有影響時，使用犧牲觸擊戰術是決定勝負的關鍵。　　Sacrifice bunt is one of commonly seen tactics in baseball games. The bunt tactic is often adopted to increase scoring chances when a player is on base, especially in Asia. However, considering all the baseball games in Asia, there is still no study investigating the impact of the bunt tactic on scoring probability. Therefore, this study investigated the percentage of successful scoring when adopting the bunt tactic under the situation of none out with runner on first base in Chinese Professional Baseball League to understand the probability of scoring after the execution of the sacrifice bunt.According to data from all Chinese Professional Baseball League regular seasons in 2012 and 2013, we estimated the scoring probability of none out with runner on first base and one out with runner on second base after a successful bunt with 0 score, 1 score or over 1 score, respectively. Regarding the data in 2012, the situation of none out with runner on first, the probability of scoring 0 is 0.682, scoring 1 is 0.197, and 0.108 to score over 1 score. However, it was 0.610 to score 0, 0.312 to score 1, and 0.068 to score over 1 score in the situation of one out with runner on second base. In 2013, the probability of scoring 0 was 0.661, scoring 1 was 0.225, and scoring over 1 was 0.087 with none out, runner on first. When it came to one out, runner on second, the chance was 0.620 to get none score, 0.343 to get one score, and 0.029 to earn over one score. The information in recent two years all showed that after a successful sacrifice bunt, the probability of scoring one will increase, but to decrease the probabilities of scoring none and over one score. Therefore, we might infer that when the runners get closer to the home plate, the higher possibility to score (0.372) while a condition with fewer outs will get a higher probability to earn over one score (0.087). This study showed that at the beginning of the game when a large amount of scores is in need, we don’t suggest to utilize sacrifice bunts. However, when it comes to the bottom of the game, one score might change the result of the game, using sacrifice bunt could be a rational choice.目　次 第壹章　緒論……………………………………………………………………………1 　第一節　研究背景…………………………………………………………………1 　第二節　研究動機與目的………………………………………………………4 　第三節　研究範圍…………………………………………………………………5 　第四節　名詞解釋…………………………………………………………………6 第貳章　文獻探討………………………………………………………………………8 　第一節　棒球攻擊戰術……………………………………………………………8 　第二節　數據統計分析發展過程及重要性…………………………………11 　第三節　中、美、日犧牲觸擊戰術之比較…………………………………14 　第四節　美國大聯盟犧牲觸擊後的得分機率………………………………25 　第五節　主要打擊數據……………………………………………………………33 第叁章　研究方法與步驟……………………………………………………………36 　第一節　研究設計…………………………………………………………………36 　第二節　資料處理…………………………………………………………………36 　第三節　統計方法…………………………………………………………………40 　第四節　條件設定…………………………………………………………………40 　第五節　資料來源…………………………………………………………………41 　第六節　研究流程…………………………………………………………………42 第肆章　研究結果………………………………………………………………………43 第伍章　討論……………………………………………………………………………55 第陸章　結論與建議…………………………………………………………………64 　第一節　結論………………………………………………………………………64 　第二節　建議………………………………………………………………………64 參考文獻…………………………………………………………………………………652117454 bytesapplication/pdf棒球;中華職棒;戰術;犧牲觸擊;機率baseball;CPBL;tactic;sacrifice bunt;probabilitythesis