Publication:

女子手球比賽得分技術分析之研究--以2006年世界大學女子組為例

本研究之目的在於了解女子手球在不同名次球隊，各項攻守技術表現指標之差異，及其與勝率之間的相關程度，透過現場實地錄影2006年世界大學女子手球賽之二十四場比賽，經由紀錄分析各項攻守技術表現之次數，以描述性統計分析各項之攻守技術表現百分比，並以獨立t檢定探討前三名與後四名各項攻守技術表現指標之間的相關程度，以多元逐步迴歸建立女子手球賽各項攻守技術表現指標與勝率之迴歸方程式，研究結果發現：

一、本次比賽，總射門2497次，總得分1323分，射門成功率52.98%；進攻型態方面：慢攻射門2141次，慢攻得分1072分，快攻射門356次，快攻得分251分；射門成功率方面，快攻成功率為70.51%，慢攻成功率為50.07%；技術表現方面：失誤702次，攻擊違例101次，抄截232次。

二、前三名與後四名隊伍各項攻守技術表現指標之間，並無顯著差異。

三、在三十項攻守技術表現指標中，快攻得分及守門員封阻率，能明顯有效的預測達97.6%。其中快攻得分一項因素具有82.7%的解釋變異量。

The aim of this study is to reveal the relationship between attack and deffence skills target and outcome in handball games. The samples were twenty-four female handball games during World University Women Handball Championship in 2006. Each of the games was filmed and all the attack and deffence skills target were coded into different categories. Percentage of each category of attack and deffence skills target was calculated, with description correlation to examine the relationship between attack and deffence skills target and the rate of winning. Multiple regression analysis was also adopted to explore the best predictor of the rate of winning a game among all the attack and deffence skills target. Results of this study showed that:1st, the sum of total goal shooting in all matches was 2497 times. The total shooting scores were 1323. The successful scoring rate was 52.98%., organized shooting was 2141 times , and the scores were 1072. while Fast break shooting was 356 times, and the scores were 251. However, the successful scoring rate for organized shooting was much lower than counter-attack shooting, which was 50.07% and 70.51% respectively., skill target: turnover was 702 times, attack fault 101 times, and interception 154 times . 2nd, there’s no distinguished difference of the skill of attack and deffence’s target between the first three teams and the last four teams. 3rd, in thirty attack and deffence skills target. Two of them can explain 97.6% variance of discrepancy of scores, including fast break, goalkeeper’s blockage. However, only fast break explained 82.7% of the rate of winning