Publication:

職業棒球先發投手使用方式之研究

先發投手於棒球比賽的勝負當中佔了重要的影響，先發投手單場投球數過多，尤其是在疲勞的狀態下持續投球，可能影響往後的成績表現，長期累積下來，也可能造成運動傷害。本研究目的為根據先發投手單場比賽的投球數，探討前三場比賽的Pitcher abuse point ^3 (PAP^3，[投球數-100]^3，若投球數<100，則PAP^3=0) 累積量，對於後三場各項成績比率的影響，試圖找出使用先發投手的合理方法，並評估先發投手適當的投球數範圍。結果顯示，不論是Workload、Finesse/Power與Groundball/Flyball皆為類似情況，當前三場PAP^3累積量增加，後三場表現較差的場數亦隨之增加，尤其以防禦率(earned run average, ERA)比率與失分率(run allowed average, RA)比率最顯著，被上壘率(walk+hit/innings pitched, WHIP)比率、fielding-independent pitching (FIP)比率、defensive-independet ERA (DERA)比率、每打席被安打率(hit/plate appearance, H/PA)比率及每打席被三振率(strike out/plate appearance, SO/PA)比率也呈現顯著的影響，唯有每打席被保送率(base on balls/plate appearance, BB/PA)比率較不顯著，而ERA比率及RA比率主要是由於H/PA比率上升。整體而言，無論是哪一類型的先發投手，在前三場累積PAP^3>3000的時候，其各項成績比率表現較差的場次是最高的情形，因此，建議前三場PAP^3累積量以低於3000，做為先發投手用球數的使用標準，以降低投手的疲勞，擁有較佳的投球表現，並可能可以避免日後的運動傷害。

Starting pitchers play a crucial role in the outcome of baseball games. Thowing too many pitches, especially in fatigued conditions, may have detrimental effects on their future performance and may cause injury. The purpose of this research was to investigate the effect of accumulated pitcher abuse point^3 (PAP^3, [pitch count-100]^3, if pitch count<100, then PAP^3=0) in the previous three games on the performance in the following 3 games. The appropriate ways to use starting pitchers and the suitable range of pitch counts were explored. The results revealed that irrespective of Workload, Finesse/Power and Groundball/Flyball, as the accumulation of PAP^3 increases, the number of games with poorer performance also increases. The earned run average (ERA) rate and runs allowed average (RA) rate were the most significant. The rates of walk+hit/innings pitched (WHIP), fielding-independent pitching (FIP), defensive-independet ERA (DERA), hit/plate appearance (H/PA) and strike out/plate appearance (SO/PA) were also significant. Only the rate of base on balls/plate appearance (BB/PA) is not so significant. The increase in ERA and RA rates resulted from the increase in H/PA rate. Irrespective of the type of starting pitchers, when accumulated PAP^3>3000 in the previous three games, the number of games with poorer performance was the highest. Therefore, this study suggested that the accumulated amount of PAP^3 during three games may be kept under 3000, in order to prevent the fatigue and maintain the performance in the following games. In addition, future sport injury may be prevented.